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Stephanie Kramer
Schadt
Scenarios for a viable lynx population in
Germany using a GIS-based, spatially explicit and individual-based
population model
For thirty years, controversy has surrounded the
introduction and proposals to introduce lynx into Germany. Central to the
controversy were questions of suitable habitat patches for lynx and the
functional connectivity between habitat patches. In spite of the many
initiatives to reintroduce lynx and the natural establishment of lynx in
the Bavarian Forest, no spatially explicit model exists that can define
habitat suitability for lynx, the functional connectivity between lynx
habitat patches, and the expansion of lynx populations.
Stephanie used in her PhD thesis quantitative methods of an
individually-based and
spatially-explicit simulation models to
simulate the spatio-temporal population dynamic of lynx within the
fragmented German landscape. The aim of her model was to formulate
management strategies for establishing a viable lynx population in
Germany. Before simulating the spatial and temporal population dynamics of
potential lynx populations in Germany, Stephanie analyzed the habitat
suitability of the German landscape (Schadt
et al. 2002a,
Schadt et al. 2002b) and developed an
individual-based dispersal model to assess the connectivity between
potential population nuclei (Kramer-Schadt
et al. 2004). Finally, using the spatially-explicit population
model she tested lynx viability under different scenarios (Kramer-Schadt
et al. 2005):
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natural development of the population,
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reintroductions (Thuringian and Black Forest, Harz),
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influence of hunting,
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alteration of landscape pattern (green corridors,
reafforestations).
The analysis suggests that if mortality causes can
be reduced, viable populations are possible in most of the larger habitat
patches, such as Harz, Black Forest, Palatine Forest and Thuringian
Forest. However, these populations appear to be functionally isolated,
except in the German-Czech border region. The model suggests that
establishment of new populations in other habitat patches cannot occur,
though single individuals could reach other suitable habitat patches.
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