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Eloy Revilla

Individual-based spatially explicit models applied to the conservation of the endangered Iberian lynx

Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) is the most threatened carnivore in Europe, and the most endangered felid in the world. It only inhabits the Iberian Peninsula, and thus the challenge of its future conservation (and that of the Mediterranean habitats the lynx occupies) depends solely on Europe. This species represents the best umbrella for the conservation of the rich Mediterranean environments of the Iberian Peninsula. It is legally protected by several International Conventions and National Laws, and also by Council Directive 92/43/EEC (European Commission), on the Conservation of Natural Habitats and Wild Fauna and Flora (listed in Appendices II -priority species among those requiring special measures of habitat protection-, and IV -strictly protected species-). Habitat degradation and fragmentation are the main threats of the Iberian lynx. These deterministic processes are produced by development of the areas inhabited by the species. Activities such as afforestation, intensive agriculture, linear infrastructures, water dams, urbanisation, fires etc. had and will continue reducing the range of the species.

Nowadays, lynx lives in nine isolated populations, each of which has a metapopulation structure. There is no information on the future viability of those metapopulations, except for the one in Doñana area. With the implementation of development plans, the situation is expected to worsen in an unknown extent, as indicated by the reduction in lynx numbers occurred during last decade, dropping below one thousand individuals. Future survival of the Iberian lynx depends on our ability in understanding the dynamic and trends of its metapopulations and their relationship with landscape design, management and development. The aims of the project are

• to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of the metapopulation, 

• to investigate metapopulation viability in relation with habitat fragmentation and landscape physiognomy, 

• to identify parameters and habitat patches critical for viability, and 

• to find the most effective management options for lynx conservation. 

The objectives are accomplished using an individual-based spatially explicit metapopulation model and maps of habitat suitability which are created with the aid of a Geographic Information System (GIS). We develop this model and the digital cartography using the information on lynx ecology gathered during last 20 years at one of the subpopulations (Doñana area, SW Spain). The inclusion of real-world spatial information into the dynamic model enables us to investigate specific questions of lynx conservation, such as (1) the identification of critical areas (e.g. high quality patches, corridors for dispersal between high quality patches, areas with high risk of mortality), (2) the evaluation of these areas in view of human development (including the actual management plan) to create a schedule of priorities based on cost/effectiveness.